Electric & Eclectic with Roger Atkins - LinkedIn Top Voice for EV

Mike Colias's Book - inEVitable: Inside the Messy, Unstoppable, Transition to Electric Vehicles

• Roger Atkins

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What if the future of cars isn’t a finish line but a tug-of-war between electrons, policy, and supply chains? That’s the lens we bring to a candid conversation with Reuters U.S. Autos Editor Mike Colias, author of Inevitable, as we chart how EV adoption can stall in the short term and still advance for the long haul. We unpack why China sprinted ahead by cracking two stubborn problems—price and charging—while the U.S. wrestles with policy whiplash and Europe navigates uneven progress across member states.

Mike takes us from the Edison-Ford era to CATL’s meteoric rise, showing how battery breakthroughs became business moats. We talk about the moment the industry underestimated Tesla, how an EV’s simpler powertrain lowered barriers to entry, and why legacy automakers found themselves playing catch-up just as China’s industrial policy hit its stride. The result: a global realignment where cost curves, charging reliability, and mineral refining capacity determine who sells the next million vehicles.

We also go deep on regulation and geopolitics. In the U.S., shifting incentives and frozen penalties chilled demand and postponed plants. In Europe, an end date for combustion is softening, but emissions pressure remains high, with hybrids, e-fuels, and biofuels reshaping compliance. Looming over everything is the minerals and midstream bottleneck—lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earths mostly refined in China—creating leverage that can swing markets overnight. Expect familiar playbooks: Chinese brands building inside tariff walls, Western OEMs doubling down on hybrids now while investing in batteries, software, and charging to compete later.

If you’re trying to make sense of the next five years—where the casualties might fall, which strategies actually close the gap, and how “new energy” links mobility to the grid—this conversation offers a clear map of the forces at work. Subscribe, share with a friend who loves cars or policy, and leave a review telling us where you think EV adoption will peak first and why.

SPEAKER_02:

Hello, and welcome to the Electric Eclectic Podcast Show with Roger Atkins and some truly smart and amazingly interesting guests.

SPEAKER_01:

These companies might talk about wanting to compete in EVs and they might dabble in it and they might, you know, put out big proclamations about how they're going to have X number of models by 2020 or whatever.

SPEAKER_02:

Are you sitting comfortably? Then we'll begin.

SPEAKER_00:

I'm very happy to have author of Inevitable, Mike Kalayas, with me today, and we're going to talk about the book. We're going to talk about the bigger picture of uh where are we now in the global auto industry and its constituent parts, the USA, Europe, Asia, et cetera. Mike, I am so pleased to talk to you. I'm thrilled to talk to you, in fact. I love your work. I particularly love this book. So thank you for finding time for me. How are you and where are you today when we're recording this?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, thanks so much, Roger, for having me. Um, I appreciate it. I am in at my home in Ann Arbor, Michigan. So I've been in the Detroit area now for uh 15 years, uh covering automotive that whole time. Um at the Wall Street Journal. Well, I said automotive news, uh great, great trade publication, uh for about five of those years. Went to um went to the Wall Street Journal was there for nine about nine, covering um as a reporter covering GM and Ford and Rivian and you know, a bunch of stuff. And and just uh six, eight months ago, I I moved over to Reuters, and now I cover um I'm the U.S. Auto's editor there.

SPEAKER_00:

So yeah. Wow. And listen, um I mentioned to you earlier in our little preamble, uh I am in awe of professional journalism, uh, professional writers, anyone who can put a book together and have it published. You know, you've been a reporter. Um I've snooped on LinkedIn, of course. You've been a reporter since 1997, Castle Rock, Colorado reporter. And you now find yourself, as you say, at Reuters chronicling this epic journey that the auto industry is on around the world. Um and and the the the the what's the line called when you're underneath a headline? What's it called? The subtitle, that's it, the the subtext. Um The Messy Unstoppable Transition to Electric Vehicles. Um so I've listened to your book. I like to do a bit of both reading books and and but mostly listening to them these days. I have have more time to do that, um, on Audible. And I listened to it very quickly because I I didn't want to miss anything. I wanted to just keep listening because it's really good. So I having been on this journey myself, I congratulate you on chronicling it so well. Um but let's just start with that that subtitle, The Messy, Unstoppable, Trans uh Inevitable Transition. Do you really see it as inevitable as an American in America in the heart of you know the motor world close to Detroit? Do you truly see it as inevitable or is it gonna get is it gonna get pushback at any point, as some people are now saying?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, well, I supp I suppose it depends on on what we're saying, what we're describing as it, right? And and I I I did a funny trick in the book, I guess. I I never really said what was inevitable. Um but I was pretty up front, uh, you know, both at the beginning of the book and the end, uh, to say that we're gonna have combustion engine cars and showrooms for a long time, for decades, um, all over the world, I think. Um so so it's not, I don't think fully electric is inevitable any, you know, anytime soon. Um, I would say that the inevitable the inevitability is around using electrons to power how we get back and forth increasingly, and using straight internal combustion engines as a way to get around is going to decline over time. And I think I can throw out, you know, what I think just based on you know having talked to a lot of people and reading a lot and covering this for a long time, what my percentage, you know, percentage of sales in a given region might be by 2030, 2035. And we can we can have some fun with that. But uh in general, yeah, I think every auto executive I talk to thinks that this is going in one direction, despite um, you know, the word messy right now and the subtitles doing a lot of work, right? Like uh in in the US, things look pretty bleak. And we're we're we've just headed into EV winter, and and I don't mean the four inches of snow on the ground outside. I mean this is gonna be a this is gonna be a brutal time, I think, um, probably over the next year before we figure out where that market demand is gonna settle. But I I just think there's there's too many reasons for it to continue to go down that path, despite problems with infrastructure and despite the battery costs. And you, you know, I'm sure your listeners know pretty well, you know, what the barriers are here. But yeah, you know, at the end of the day, uh people who drive electrics generally don't go back, right? Um, you know, you you see examples of that, sure, but the the loyalty rates are are super high. It's a more efficient way of using energy. Um you know, it's there's there's precedent for this. And you know, hybrid cars 25 years ago, you know, people would look at a hybrid and it had a stigma attached to it, you know, and and and now it's just you know, it's just like any other any other way of getting around. Um obviously a ton more to consider with an electric, and you know, it is it's a lifestyle change, and and there's more, you know, there's infrastructure things to consider, but there's reason to think that that that sort of usage um pattern starts to to happen over time. People see their friends and family driving EVs, they realize it's not gonna burn their garage down, likely. Um you know, people get used to used to the idea of it, and I think I think that's gonna play out over time. I just and I'm sure we're gonna talk quite a bit about China, but I just think if you look at that market, the one place that's taken out the two friction points, the two pain, the two biggest pain points of of EV ownership and adoption, which is price and hassles around charging, um, they've figured those things out, and now that's what everybody wants to buy. It's it's you know, almost 50% of the market is probably going to go up from there. So I think that's a pretty good indicator of where of where we're headed once you know, once you figure out those two critical pieces.

SPEAKER_00:

Yes. Uh you cover a lot there, and and and you're right. I mean, and certainly that last point um where China is now and and and what it's done. But of course, bear in mind China is very different structurally to the arguably the rest of the world. You know, it's had this radical shift from a rural economy to an urban economy in short order. The cities are huge, you know, vast metropolitan areas, which is very different to the United States, very different to Europe, arguably anywhere else in the world. Um and therefore their kind of their fit for purpose is the electric vehicle with, as you say, the right pricing and the right charging proposition. Inevitably, to use your word, um triggering that rapid adoption. Uh but I think trying to, as some people see it, fit a square peg into a round hole now in the rest of the world is where we've got this friction. But can I come into a couple of people you reference in the book and and and a point that you make very well in the book, that you go back even as far as Edison. I know you didn't interview Edison. I'm sure you'd have loved to. Um go back to, you know, the dawn of the automotive revolution. It was a twin, I won't call it imperative, but but twin ambition of electric and combustion. You know, Henry Ford, Thomas Edison. That's extraordinary. But then two people you reference, contemporary people. Um Mujib Ijaz, and we talk about batteries and that stuff around A123 systems and where they were a while ago. And also Bob Gallion. Both people in and around the core and the essence and the fundamental of the electric vehicle revolution, which of course is the battery. So, yeah, give us give us a flavor, then, if you like, drawing from what some of what you've written in the book about how America has lost that lead in the battery that it had without down, even in recent times, you know, go back three or four decades, certainly even two or three. Um why why did why did the United States lose its grip on this key component of the electric revolution battery, Mike?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, and you can even look at the development of the lithium-ion battery, and there was a there was a heavy American involvement in that. You know, there are three three scientists uh who were awarded the Nobel Priest Peace Prize not too long ago um for that for those developments. And so, you know, that that just furthers the roots into, you know, America's roots into this. Um yeah, it you know, that's one of the things one of my takeaways from the book is just how how close America sort of got to being the one to lead this, you know, lead lead the charge here. And and um, you know, I think in in talking to to people who worked and toiled in battery development, EV development over the years in the US, who finally just kind of, you know, mostly inside big companies like General Motors or Ford and just kind of threw up their hands and and obviously those companies dabbled in it in and out. Um, but eventually they decided I'm just gonna have to go to startup land or I'm gonna have to go to China, you know, to to see to you know, to really get any traction and feel like uh, you know, I'm I'm moving ahead on this. Um, because people, you know, people generally in that work feel pretty passionately about it. They feel passionately about what they, you know, whether it's climate change or you know, other reasons for it. I mean, they're they're a little more idealistic, I think, than a lot a lot of uh engineers you might meet. And so, yeah, Bob's a great example of that. You know, he he was a chief chief battery engineer on the EV1. Um, you know, I think he was Delphi when the Delphi uh spin-off happened. I think he um jumped to Magna and was working there for a long time, but a long distinguished care career, uh, all in the US, all in battery, um, battery development and research, and then found himself one day, this is late 2011, at a conference um in Guangzhou, China, and you know, was was walking off stage after giving a speech, and and uh a guy by the name of Robin Zhang walked up to him and you know just started a conversation and said, and and by the end of the conversation invited him um over to the uh over to his his company, which was a battery maker, but it was not a EV battery maker, it was ATL, which was at the time one of the biggest consumer electronics battery companies. And so Bob wasn't really sure what to make of this, but he he went over to the you know, went over to the company's headquarters and he had a session with a bunch of engineers and picked apart some batteries and you know was ready to leave. And and then Robin, you know, asked him to go to dinner. And so he ends up going to dinner and and it was this, you know, 60 engineers and just this one prominent battery scientist from the US who they wanted to learn from. And, you know, long story short, um, he was interested, you know, Robin Zhang was interested in starting an EV battery company, and he wanted Bob Gelling to help him start it. And so Bob became the CTO and one of the first employees of that company, which is now CATL, and it's the world's largest battery company. In 2011, doesn't sound like such a long time ago for a company that's now the biggest in the world, right?

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, it and and I particularly love that section in your book where you're talking about Bob. And of course, here in Europe, um Robin had his own champion in Herbert Dees. Herbert Deese uh equally uh encouraged um Robin Zang to focus on batteries for electric vehicles. So, you know, you you had um a significant European player, and you had BMW at the time with with Herbert Deese and Bob, as you describe in the book and explain where where that all was. Um which for me, Mike, in many ways just exemplifies how progress happens when people collaborate. Um smart people get together and they bring different sort of talents and skills and and all this stuff. Um and and that's that's how we've seen certain certainly that that stuff happen. And of course, the architect of the Chinese electric vehicle revolution it uh was the guy um what's again, he's in the book, Gang Gang Wan. That guy was a he was a how he was an Audi for ten years, you know, and and and then concluded that actually here we are in the 21st, well, as we are now 21st century um with this suck squeeze bang blow technology from uh from you know a long time ago. It was always going to change. It was also because Mike, uh you focus off and talk to lots of people in and around the US auto industry. What I can't fathom is why anyone has not uh just come to a simple conclusion that 25%, 30% thermal efficiency you know, which is the internal combustion engine, uh, was long overdue for a reboot, a reboot into electrification. And why why the industry didn't take ownership of that inevitability? That's why I love the name of your book, Inevitable, because I think it is. Yeah. So so so again, go going back to how has America allowed well and Europe allowed this to slip through its fingers and gifted it to the Chinese to then deliver. Um because, like I said, put everything else to one side, simply in pure engineering terms, one is highly efficient, one isn't.

SPEAKER_01:

Um yeah, so so so Yeah, then that's that and that's an that's another reason that I should have thrown in when I was talking about the inevitable inevitability of it is um is is just that, that the efficiency of the electric vehicle and the fact that these companies worked for a century to basically perfect the internal combustion engine. There's not much more you know, water you can squeeze from that rock, right? It's it's the they've they've worked uh about as as far as they can get to get fuel efficiency out of out of the ice uh vehicle. And you know, I I think you know, going back to your question on how America fumbled this, I mean, I I think there's a little bit of um what we've seen in other sectors, right? I mean, we you know, Silicon Valley developed uh semiconductors and then we ceded the the manufacturing of that to um it to Asia and other places. Um, you know, it just we I think we went through a period in this country where we were developing things and not making things. Um, you know, that's pretty well pretty well established. That's not a novel thought, but I think I think batteries, you know, lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles kind of falls into that into that bucket as well. And um at the same time, you had China playing this, really playing the long game consistently, methodically, um trying to leap ahead, knew they weren't gonna compete against these multinational companies that came in and JV'd with their companies, and you know, that they worked alongside each other, and the the Chinese brands try to compete with the American brands. This is in the you know 80s, 90s, you know, early part of the 2000s. And they knew they weren't gonna catch up uh to the to the uh BMWs and auties of the world on internal combustion technology. And so right around that 2005 period uh is when they said, we know how to leap ahead, or we think we do, and let's give it a shot. And oh, by the way, Tesla, Elon Musk was making that same bet halfway around the world um that if we go this route, these companies might talk about wanting to compete in EVs and they might dabble in it and they might, you know, put out big proclamations about how they're gonna have X number of models by 2020 or whatever, but they're never gonna fully embrace it because that's not where they're making their money.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

And it turned out to be a pretty good bet in both accounts.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah. Now, Mike, I'm so glad you brought up Tesla. And I was I was itching for you to do that because when I'm saying, you know, the US let it slip through its fingers, yada yada. Um it didn't because there's this American company called Tesla that led the way. You know, they truly were the the the game changer, the shapeshifter, the call and what you will. Um and without getting into personalities, particularly one particular personality, when when you look at all that Tesla has triggered, they are, you know, if you take Tesla, the out outcome from uh Dieselgate and and then China's rise, put those three bits together. That that's what it is. And I think Tesla is even more significant than some people really give them credit for, because when you look at their arrival in China, what's that phrase? Um they were used as uh catfish. Yeah, that's it, isn't it? They were used as catfish by uh by the PRC, by the Chinese government to scare, you know, inspire, accelerate, you know, these these Chinese uh startups uh to really get going and and become really good. You know, they they wanted to frighten them, you know, the catfish thing. Um so so yeah, I mean that that that's the irony. That this thinking about it, you know, the the electric revolution predominantly is about an American company called Tesla.

SPEAKER_01:

I mean, you know, in addition to the in addition to some of the other uh examples you mentioned, you know, GM and the EV1 and you know the opportunity they might have had that there or or with the Chevy Vault, or um you know, Ford also had some, you know, they had an electric Ford Ranger in the in the in the 90s. Um there were examples of where the companies were were sniffing around this, and you know, but I think what I think, and and it's an interesting question. I hadn't really thought about it that way. I I think and and Tesla, you know, I say right at the outset of the book, like this book's not about Tesla, but Tesla is either mentioned on every page or might as well be because it influenced so much of what has gone on. And I think you know, for the longest time, and you know this, um, the companies really dismissed uh Tesla as a you know was a curiosity at best or uh you know a subject of uh animosity. They just, you know, they're never going to reach scale. And you know, if they reach scale, they're never gonna turn a profit. I mean, they just these companies weren't used to a a startup. There wasn't well, it hadn't been a startup car company in in almost a century because the barriers to barriers to entry were too high because of the internal combustion engine is so complex, hundreds of moving parts, a massive supply chain. Um, you know, it was just it was the kind of the beating heart of the car business. And here, you know, comes along this company that slapped some laptop batteries together, you know, and stuck it in a lotus frame and and off they go. Um, you know, it's sure, EVs are high tech devices. Battery chemistry is difficult, but at the end of the day, you can snap together an EV, essentially an EV powertrain off the shelf. And it it lowered those barriers to entry to a point where I think by the time the rest of the industry realized how big of a threat Tesla was and started moving in this direction, the seeds that China had planted 15, 20 years earlier had already taken root in China. And the way that Chinese government can just kind of put its thumb on the scale to move things in a in a really fast and and and forceful way, you know, it was kind of game over. Despite the fact that Tesla was conquering the world with EVs, this is you know late teens, early 20s, um China just already had had its beat, right? They'd they had gotten the jump, they had put in the infrastructure, they had put in the financial incentives, they had helped build the factories both at the Beijing level and the provincial level. And so it just the industrial policy that they put behind that effort, I don't think can be understated.

SPEAKER_00:

No, it can't. And I'm also intrigued by something. I'd love your thoughts on this. And why the Chinese chose to call them new energy vehicles and not electric vehicles? I don't think it's a translation thing. You got any i any thoughts on that for that?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah. Um I I don't know. I mean, I know that they they they included the counted plug-in hybrids as, you know, as part of their you know, as to hit the regs. I mean, th those counted, so they weren't technically EVs, but I'm not sure where that uh the the origin uh the origin of that.

SPEAKER_00:

Well, I've a I have a theory, by the way, but uh please don't think this is you know I've not been told this, but I always thought, well, what's new energy? You think well new energy must be renewables, I presume. So you know, if if eventually I keep thinking I can't help keep using your word, inevitably. As we shift to to new energy, renewable energy, uh et cetera, that's the stuff that should fill the tank of the battery, you know, f d you know, ra rather than it being charged from a fossil fuel power station, etc., etc. You know, and the detractors from from electric vehicles talking about the long tailpipe, saying, well, yeah, but it's being filled up with with stuff from whatever. They're right. You know, they they're right to m to make that accusation. But as we increasingly feed into the mix renewable energy, new energy, they do become new energy vehicles. So so I'd like to talk to you, if I can, uh, a little bit about this. It seems like it's my turn of phrase for it, is a marriage between uh energy and mobility. Um, two industries that haven't changed, like you've described and goes through the book a lot, in over a hundred years. The auto auto industry hasn't really changed in a hundred years. Um now it is. Uh but it's coupling with, for the first time, this radical shift in the energy system, you know, um increased input of solar and wind, the the arrival of geothermal, other sources as well that are yet to kind of, you know, and well, geothermal is yet to really take off uh in terms of it being an economic proposition. But all of that new energy stuff, which is coming to America as it's coming to everywhere. Um Yeah, that that's the bit that intrigues me most. That uh the bit in between all of this then is the battery. So uh so can we talk for a minute about the interview you you the discussion you have with Mujib, um Mujib Ejaz and his time at um uh what was it, A123 Systems? What happened there, Mike? I mean, uh it failed for reasons which maybe you can reference. And then what year would this have been? I can't quite remember, but it then gets bought by uh by a Chinese company, the Wangxian Group. Um yeah, how did how did that ever happen?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, I mean, uh so I talked a lot to Mujeeb, who's just by way of um introduction to your listeners who may not know him, he's uh you know, he worked a long time at Ford. Um, I believe was a I think he was an engineer, not battery chemist, but he worked on EV development and you know, and again, an example. He he worked on that um he worked on that electric ranger that they dabbled with. I think it was back in the 90s, um, and worked on a lot of like you know, tried and failed projects inside of Ford um before moving on. Um I think he was at a supplier potentially after that. I can't remember. I don't want to um speak out of turn, but uh you know, uh I think an another one of these career um you know EV battery engineers who wanted to, you know, help change the world. And it wasn't happening at the Detroit 3. And so he ended up at this A123 company. This would this would be around, I think, the 2009-10 timeframe. Um you know, that company got some help from some federal loans. And yeah, I don't know the inside story in in terms of how that how that sort of failed. Um, you know, I the the only the only reason I've been given from the people I've talked to about it is their cost base was just too high. Um they were trying to make LFP batteries and it just it was hard to do here, probably for the same reason it would be today, which is you've got to tap into the Chinese supply chain, which is really difficult because that's the lowest cost in the world. And if you if you can't do that successfully, it's gonna be difficult. But um so that that ended up going going bankrupt, and then he he jumped you know to Apple and then started his own started his own company, which is interesting and and we can talk about.

SPEAKER_00:

But but yeah, yeah. When I met him, because I've I've known him on and off for well, not on and off, I've got to know him uh uh he was at Gigger Africa, the benchmark gig uh recently, and we had a good good hangout. Um but yeah, what it what always amuses me, Mike, is um the two or three times I've been with him in his company and I've said, tell me about what you did at Apple then. And he won't breathe, he won't breathe a word of it. I don't know what they get people to sign or what they actually do, but I've never yet met anyone who's been at special projects at Apple who's prepared to talk about it.

SPEAKER_01:

I've I've I know a handful of people who who, you know, I believe worked on that, whatever that iCar project was. Exactly. And none of them to this day will breathe, breathe a word about it.

SPEAKER_00:

But I mean, I uh you know, like I say, I'm storyteller, you're a proper reporter. I mean, it's frustrating, isn't it, when people you can't you go around the houses trying to get them to say something, but they they don't say anything. Um so yeah, that that's that's that's amazing. Um okay, let's quickly run through some other stuff because uh I I can't give give the book a review um because that's not my kind of forte. All I can say to people is I know the story pretty well, if that doesn't sound hopefully it doesn't sound arrogant. Um but I learned a lot from how you chronicled it and how you timelined it through. I'd also read other similar books. Um Levi Tillerman's The Great Race. That's another good book that kind of traces, tracks and traces the this story. Um but but yeah, what what I'm intrigued about now is what happens next. So we're days away from a big announcement, apparently, out of Brussels that might say we're not going to put an end date on internal combustion manufacturer. Because there is one at the moment, 2035. Um and there's been recent changes in America with even days ago, um, with with the shift of um uh emissions regs, uh uh, I believe. Um it's almost like the heat's off. The the sort of switch and the push to electric vehicle, the heat's off, you know, the incumbents. They've they you know, it's almost like you feel like they're all going to sit around and say, Oh, we've got away with it. You know, we've got another decade or two decades or whatever. But what's your take then, given that you've referenced this world, this word inevitable, you've been on this journey and well, not just the book, but your your professional career. Um and we started talking about this very at the very beginning, but how how is it all going to shake down? Are we eventually gonna see you know European OEMs fail? Uh and American ones too, and and and China and Asia dominate. Let's not forget Korea, by the way, and Japan, because South Korea and Japan are very good at making electric vehicles too. So what's your how do you see the next few years without upsetting people in the region you live, Mike? You know, you live amongst it all. Um Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, I I would I would make a distinction between what's going on on the regulatory front in in Europe and the US. Um and I know I know the US better, but you know, the the whole question about being off the hook, I I do think there's that that sentiment playing out in the US. I mean, it's not just the federal government took away support for electric vehicles in the form of that$7,500 tax credit.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

Um, it's freezing fines for not hitting fuel fuel efficiency standards, these these regs that have been in place for decades that really dictated the way the car companies developed products, what products they developed, um, you know, how they went to market, could they sell big pickup trucks in this certain state without getting a fine? You know, they they had to they had to be careful. They had to, they, they had to work hard to get the fuel efficiency up, whether they went full electric or hybrid or however they tried to do it, they were graded on a corporate fleet-wide, you know, here's how much pollution you're putting in the air. If you put too much in the air, you either got to buy these credits from Tesla, right? Or or you're gonna get a fine from the federal government. All that stuff kind of went away overnight with some of these changes in the US um in this bill that was passed over in July. So that the the$7,500 tax credit gone as of September 30th. We've seen a 50% drop-off in EV sales. We've seen announcement after announcement from companies saying we're not gonna do this model, we're gonna um push back this factory, this battery factory, two more years. You know, it's a tangible result of some of these regulations that have been changed. In Europe, I think this is a lot different. I know the 2035 ban, you know, I think a reasonable people, a reasonable person can look at the adoption rate right now and the reality on the ground and say, I don't see a way we get there, right? And so that's I think what industry is telling the regulators in in Brussels. Um the early reporting that might, but what might what might come out of that, I think, is is still much more stringent in terms of fuel economy regulations of what the companies will be required to do than you're seeing in the US. They may they may push it back to 2040, it sounds like um they're gonna require biodiesels or I'm sorry, biofuels and e-fuels, and um, you know, there's gonna be maybe plug-in hybrids, maybe extended range get gets counted in the whole mix. And I don't know, I don't know the EU um breaks well enough. And this is all speculation, by the way, because it's it hasn't happened yet. But yeah, it sounds like what you're gonna end up with over there is much more stringent than what we have here in the US. So I think they're you know, they're they're two different things. I would say I think there's a concern that you know the Chinese have gone from exporting almost no cars 10 years ago, eight years ago, seven, to now being the biggest exporter of cars in the world past Japan a year or two ago. They're moving into Europe, as you know, Latin America, they're making huge inroads there. There's no Chinese cars in the US right now. Um, and it's hard to envision that happening, but you know, I think Trump's on record as saying like if if if a Chinese you know auto firm wanted to come in here and build a big factory, I'd consider it. I think he said something along those lines.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

You know, there are there are scenarios in which you could see you know, nobody thought the Japanese were gonna come in here and and you know do what they did in the 60s and 70s and 80s and take all this market share from the Detroit companies. So I I just think most auto executives I talk to are feel as though they need to be prepared to you know do battle with the Chinese when they enter whatever market they're gonna enter. And if you're not, I think it's a big risk. Right now it feels good, I'm sure, for a GM or a four to be able to sell big full-size pickup trucks and SUVs to customers in Texas and elsewhere, and that they make a ton of money on those. But you know, something has to there's there has to be something in place that's keeping them trying to innovate and trying to get the cost out and trying to figure out okay, how are we going to compete one day with China?

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah. I I mean again, you've gone gone through a lot there. I mean, just just kind of on the European side of things, I think the challenge is similar to America, but think about it. Um So California is very different to you know New York State uh uh and Texas and you know, go through all the states. The same in Europe. You know, you've got Norway that's raced away with electric vehicle adoption, um, Denmark to some extent, the Netherlands, the UK is not too bad either. But then you've got other countries within the European Union that are nowhere near there. They haven't really kind of got going in any fashion. So I think the challenge is when you have a national mandate, a national decree, that that's kind of that kind of doesn't work. That's like saying, you know, the word average is, you know, the the figure of an average is all well and good, but it belies the extremes. You know? And I think that's the problem, the one size fits all problem, you know, country by country, because there are different economic reasons, geographic, you know, technical reasons, lots of things in in in all of this. But um picking up on what you also said there about in the past, the Japanese, oh is this a story of the rewriting basically of history? The same thing happened before. The Japanese came with cars that were, you know, let's use the word just for the moment, better. Um trade barriers were put up, tariffs were put up, um, and then they basically said, Well, we'll come and make them in your country then, so we'll jump over that tariff fence. Um is that is that exactly what's going to happen again, Mike?

SPEAKER_01:

Well, it seems like we're starting to see the early innings of that play out in Europe, right? I mean, we have B BYD's building factories there. Um, and and other Chinese automakers I know are on record as saying that they plan to build there as well. You know, there are you know, Europe did put up tariffs on these companies, they've come in anyway. Um, so yeah, I I think I think there are definite parallels. Auto executives, you know, Ford CEO Jim Farley has talked about the parallels. It it keeps him up at night. He's you know, he's gone many times to China and you know, driven cars on the racetrack and and and come back and said, tell his team, you know, we don't you don't realize what what we're up against here. You know, and and he you know he was at Toyota um not long after they came in and started taking a ton of market share from Detroit. And he's he's he's made that same uh that same parallel and he feels like that there's a chance that that could be that that could be happening here.

SPEAKER_00:

Aaron Ross Powell Yeah, but but I think we've mentioned it a couple of times, certainly in your book, because you talk about the Sultan Sea, you talk about lithium, talk about you know the critical mineral supply chain. Could it be, though, Mike, that whilst we might be about to see a rerun of what happened in you know with Japan and and so on, the difference this time is, unlike then, everyone shared a kind of um supply chain proposition. You know, the tier ones, tier twos, they're accessible to everybody. Um so yeah, you could then okay compete in some fashion because you could make the product and could do it. But given that at the moment the ownership principally and certainly of the battery is hugely controlled, managed, dominated, call it whatever word you want, by the Chinese. Isn't this the problem that that the real missing link now is in the supply chain, particularly critical minerals, which is something I've focused on, a company I mentioned earlier. Um benchmark. When I started listening to that, there was a there was a uh presentation by the founder of the company, uh Simon Moores, to the US Senate Energy Committee in February of 2019. And he opened up by saying, We're in the midst of a global battery arms race, of which the United States is a bystander. And then he concluded, I'm gonna misquote him, but these sort of words those that control these critical mineral supply chains control the destiny of the 21st century industrial landscape. Like, wow, that's like stuff that's like stuff out of a movie, Mike. Um so yeah, is that potentially the the I mean, uh forgive me for using this turn of phrase, is that the Trump card that the Chinese have that they own the supply chain of this this new this new thing, the electric vehicle?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, I I'd say for sure. And and it's it is the most difficult challenge that the industry that the traditional automakers face um in trying to close the gap with China because you know we've seen efforts um companies trying to trying to reshore some of the stuff and and start lithium production in the US and cathode and anode material, and you know, GM's probably done more on this than most companies. Yeah. But I mean, the the the timeline it takes, you know, a lithium mine in Nevada, for example, um, you know, that's that's years, if not decades, in the making before you you really get to scale on something like that. Um it, you know, a if if it's not mined in China, it's certainly refined there. I think 80% of the refining for nickel and magnesium and lithium and graphite, you know, it all happens in China. And I mean, we've seen it play out in this trade war this year um with rare earths, which is another huge advantage that that China has. I mean, at any point, they can just restrict the export controls on rare earths and magnets, and it cripples not only the auto sector, but other industries as well. It's you know, they've always the China always has that that leverage. And until you're able to stand up, you know, a comparable supply chain and uh elsewhere in the world or on your own, you know, shores, it's it's gonna be you're always gonna be sort of, you know, at any point you could be held hostage in a geopolitical trade war, right?

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, but but but this stuff has been flagged. Like I said, I heard that reference in 2019, but it just me, you know, it just kind of hasn't been pushed over the line, hasn't been properly resolved. By the way, if you can hear some background music, it's Father Christmas coming round, because we're recording this uh in mid-December. It's it's the Rotary Club coming around with their annual um very loud music and Father Christmas. Christmas shaking the buckets for there you go. That's them going right by the house now. Anyway, um yeah, look look, uh what happens next nobody knows. I I think is the truth of it all. Uh but but for sure what's going to happen is as you as you say, the electric vehicle in one form, fashion, or otherwise, is here to stay. And that, as you've alluded to, both in this conversation and certainly in the book, it's a different pace of change and adoption depending upon where you are in the world. Um and for good reason it's fast in China, because it it fits, it fits the China industrial landscape in many ways. Um as to how it all shakes down, um yeah, I've got a I got a sense of things, but I also do have a sense of trepidation that we'll see some big casualties. You know, big companies we've known well all our lives, you know, maybe kind of not making it, because they're trying to, you know, switch horses midstream or whatever metaphor you want to use, you know, that that that they're trying to do jobs at the same time, and it's just proving pretty damn difficult, if not impossible. Um so yeah, I mean I I um there's not going to be a lack of things to report if you are the automotive reporter for Reuters, is there?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, I feel like there's always a crisis in in the car business. Um, you know, there's there's strikes and there's supply chain shocks, and there's, you know, there used uh back in the day there was oil, oil shocks um that would scramble the market. And um, but this one feels a little different, doesn't it? It feels more structural, more structural, more uh dare I say existential. Um I think that that word probably pops up in my book book a few times. It does. And and it pops up. I I you know, I'll tell you what, uh, you know, it was conference season in Detroit as it is probably most places. These conferences uh falls a big time for that, and and the just the this kind of sense of this existential dread that hangs over some of these panel discussions in Detroit around around the lead that China has, and you know, how are we gonna make up? How are we gonna onshore this stuff? What are we gonna do about rare earths and and you know the EV, the battery mineral supply chain, like you mentioned. Um you know, everyone knows what they're up against now. At least people aren't in denial anymore. Um, and so you're right, it is hard to it is hard to say what will happen. Uh but I think the the world, the rest of the world responding to China pushing out after really destroying traditional automakers in China, now they're pushing out to all these other markets, and that's you know, over the next three to five years. I mean, that's where the tension point lies. How are they going to be received? Are there are governments gonna try to protect their markets? Are they gonna try to compete? Can they compete? I mean, those are the those are the big questions, I think.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah. Wow, they are very big questions. So I I I think that's a nice way to wrap stuff. I mean, we haven't spoken about dealers or the traditional business model fitting in all of this yet, but we we we could we could talk for a long time. I think it's best if people either listen to as I did an Audible or buy and read your book, because I think in understanding the past, you have a much better chance of getting your head around where we are in the present and and more likely how it how it's going to shape down for the future. That's why I like reading books, you know, chronicles like like yours, Mike, because you can think you know stuff, and and actually you just need to remind yourself of things and carefully contextualize things. Um again, that's that's what a good well, as well you're a journalist, you're you're very good at doing that. Um putting that all together. By the way, I I I'm lucky I get to go to some of those conferences you you you mentioned, um and kind of yeah, and next time in a I'm due to be in America that I know, um maybe before, will be um in November in Toledo, which isn't very far from you, I don't think. Um an event in Evis, which uh um electric vehicle innovation symposium. I've been to one in Abu Dhabi because that's a region that's getting very, very interesting in all of this. Uh and they have their first uh adventure in America next year in in in November. So maybe we bump into each other, if not before, uh next year around you know, a bit earlier than now. That that would be great. Um because because I'd you know I'd I'd love to sit down with you and have a beer and you know, have a chat more about well, what's happened between now and then as well.

SPEAKER_01:

Absolutely. No, that sounds great. And and like you said, there's no shortage of things to talk about. It's such a dynamic industry. Uh, you know, it was dynamic before all these uh, you know, disruptive forces took hold, right? It's it's you know, it's massive, it's tied to national economies, it's it's it's the identity of of national economies. Um, you know, it's supply chains are unlike anything else. You know, so I was fascinated by it even before um you know the EV story. There's autonomous, which I only touched on a tiny bit in the book, but that's you know a whole nother um you know potential game changer that that these companies are gonna have to figure out. I mean, I I would not want to be um sitting in the CEO chair of one of the big neither would I.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, neither would I. I mean, batches and software, they're that they're they're the they're the two, you know, they're the two biggies, aren't they, really, when when you think about it. Um okay. Well well look, that thank you so much for your time. I appreciate you, you know, jumping on a call, recording podcasts with me. Um because it will help people, I hugely recommend your book. I'm not your agent. We're not distant relatives in some fashion. Um I'm saying it because I think it will help people, you know, get their head around just what the heck is going on and what might happen next. Um so uh Mike, thank you very much. I look forward to meeting up in person. Um and for now, let's just go and get ready for Christmas and jump into 2026 and try and push the trepidation to one size, uh one side and uh and and join in um the adventure. Uh thank you.

SPEAKER_01:

Sounds great. Thanks for having me on, Roger. I really enjoyed the conversation and the smart questions. It was it was great. So thanks again.

SPEAKER_02:

Thanks for listening to the show. And make sure to follow Roger on LinkedIn, where you'll discover almost all there is to know about the spectacular electric vehicle revolution.

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Roger Atkins

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